U.S. beef cattle herd smallest since 1951
The Texas beef cattle herd could be on its way to a rebuild after hitting its lowest numbers in a decade, according to Texas A&M AgriLife Extension Service experts.
David Anderson, Ph.D., AgriLife Extension economist in the Department of Agricultural Economics, and Jason Cleere, Ph.D., AgriLife Extension statewide beef cattle specialist in the Department of Animal Science, both in the Texas A&M College of Agriculture and Life Sciences, Bryan-College Station, said Mother Nature will determine whether Texas’ beef cattle herd continues to shrink or rebounds. They agreed that rebuilding herd numbers will rely heavily on rain and soil moisture supporting forage production for grazing through 2024 and winter feeding into spring 2025.
According to the U.S. Department of Agriculture National Agricultural Statistics Service cattle inventory report released Jan. 31, the nation’s beef cow herd fell 2% since last year to 28.2 million head. Anderson said the report estimate is the lowest number of U.S. beef cows since 1951.
The beef cattle herd in Texas is the smallest – 4.1 million head – since 2014. The Texas herd started to recover from the 2011-2012 drought after that low point.
From 2010 to 2014, the Texas herd shrunk from 5.14 million to 3.9 million, a 24% decline, Anderson said. There were 4.65 million beef cows in 2019, but those numbers have fallen 12% since due to the drought’s impact on forage production in back-to-back years.
Declining beef cattle numbers across the state ripple into national markets because Texas carries 14.6% of the U.S. herd.
Like a big ship reversing course, Anderson said rebuilding cattle herds takes time.
“Higher sale prices are an incentive for producers to expand the herd, but a lot of producers have been feeding hay since mid-July, and that has led to deeper culling of herds,” Anderson said. “The stage is set to expand, but the key is rainfall and conditions allowing producers to hold back replacement heifers that are the future of our herds.”
Calf prices riding producer optimism
Cleere said recent rainfall has greatly improved soil moisture indexes and stock tank water levels around the state.
That soil moisture has fueled optimism among producers, and he suspects it has impacted recent spikes in calf prices at local cattle markets.
“I think producers are eager to keep replacement heifers, but they’ve also been struggling to hold on to cows,” Cleere said. “The rainfall has provided more optimism. Calf prices have been crazy good the last couple of weeks.”
For example, Anderson said the combined calf price data from Texas auctions showed prices for 500-600-pound calves increased from $273 to $299 per hundredweight in the last two weeks.
Cleere said the price jump in calf prices could be related to producers buying calves because they have good available grazing on cool-season forages like wheat and ryegrass. Recent rains should significantly improve spring forage production in cool-season forage pastures.
Good spring grazing conditions should help producers as calving begins, Cleere said.
The USDA-NASS report estimated the U.S. calf crop at 33.6 million head, down 2% from 2022. Cleere said Texas producers could see a lighter spring calving season due to factors like heat-related stress during the summer based on several palpitation reports around the state.
Cleere also shared concerns about seeing below-average body condition scores in bred cows. Low body condition scores could impact this calf crop but also could impact recovery times for breeding and cows’ ability to carry a calf to term.
While optimism is high among cattle producers now, Cleere said last year was an example of how quickly conditions can turn. There was optimism that the 2022 drought was breaking in parts of the state following winter and spring rain, but by May, the dry, hot conditions set in and did not let up.
He encouraged producers to find ways to optimize good conditions now but to stick to plans that protect their operation’s long-term ability to hold cattle. Both Cleere and Anderson agree that all market indicators point to even higher calf prices as the state and national herds rebuild.
“The big thing is, as we start spring calving, we need to make sure those cattle remain in good body condition so they can be bred,” he said. “I’ve seen quite a few thin cows out there, and I know producers are stretching hay supplies, but we need to be thinking about the next calf crop right now.”